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2nd Quarter New Housing Analysis for Memphis & Shelby County

August 22nd, 2013

With Shelby County’s new housing market recovery steadily underway at the mid-year mark, we continue to see new home prices rise with this year’s 2nd quarter new home sale prices averaging $257,931 making this the highest 2nd quarter sale price we’ve seen since 2008 when the average new home sale price was $280,372.

This year’s average new home sale price is a 6% jump over 2012’s second quarter average price of $243,677. During this year’s second quarter we also saw new home sales jump by 17% with 260 new home sales compared to 223 sales during 2012’s second quarter.

This is the most new home sales we’ve seen since 2nd quarter 2010. New home starts remained steady with 269 starts during 2013’s second quarter unchanged from 269 starts during 2012’s second quarter. Regency Homes continues to be Shelby County’s top builder with 65 new home starts and 58 new home sales during this year’s second quarter.

With sales outpacing new home starts for the quarter, we saw a slight 2% drop in unsold inventory with 870 houses in inventory as of 6/30/2013, compared to 887 houses as of 6/30/2012. The current unsold inventory accounts for 3.3 quarters, or 11.1 months, supply of new housing. At the end of last year’s second quarter, there were 4 quarters, or 13.1 months, supply of new housing.

As the new housing market continues to push forward there is some growing concern among local builders over the current lot supply within Shelby County which has continued to dwindle over the last 7 years slowly pushing up lot prices and in turn continuing to push up new home prices affecting the affordability of new homes in the county. At the end of this year’s second quarter lot prices averaged $43,079 up 13% from year-end 2012’s average lot price of $38,285. This is something builders will continue to keep a close eye on going forward. With increasing lot prices and the dwindling supply, we will likely see new home prices continue to rise through out the remainder of the year.

Click here to download our complete 2nd Quarter New Housing Inventory Analysis & Charts report outlining new housing activity by zip code and subdivision.

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