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Master Your Market Seminar Recap: Uncertainty Pervades Real Estate

February 18th, 2013 Comments off

Seminar: Uncertainty Pervades Real Estate

Article by: Sarah Baker, Real Estate Reporter for The Daily News

2013 will be a big year on many real estate fronts – foreclosures, property taxes and property values.

That was the message industry professionals heard Thursday, Feb. 14, at real estate information company Chandler Reports’ 2012 year-end “Master Your Market” seminar at the Holiday Inn University of Memphis.

Attendees learned about two ongoing issues that affect every homeowner and taxpayer – the 2013 Shelby County reappraisal and the Shelby County school consolidation.

Although separate but related topics, one word was used throughout both presentations from Andy Raines, property tax attorney with Evans Petree PC, and Eric Barnes, publisher of The Daily News and The Memphis News – uncertainty.

“We don’t really know what’s going to happen with the schools yet,” Barnes said. “From a really callous real estate point of view … if the schools are a big driver of where people buy and sell their homes, all of this uncertainty isn’t helping a market move forward. From a somewhat civic point of view, the only people it helps is the private schools.”

Despite the uncertainty with the ongoing legal and legislation situation, Barnes said one thing is almost certain: county taxes are going to go up, perhaps considerably.

“It is a strange dynamic, even if they get a separate municipal school district, county taxes, I think in general, are going to up,” Barnes said. “The city of Memphis, the City Council is committed, and they really mean this, to lowering property taxes in the city. That’s interesting from a real estate point of view. People who say, ‘I want to get out of that really high double taxation in the city of Memphis,’ you could envision over the next four to eight years, a time when that difference isn’t quite as dramatic.”

To that end, Raines said the 2013 county reappraisal is very crucial because, generally speaking, as property taxes go up the value of property goes down. With commercial property, that affects buyers because when taxes are higher, net operating income is lower. With residential property, buyers look at property taxes as a component of what they’re going to pay for the house.

“Taxpayers need to be aware and very diligent about keeping an eye on the property taxes,” Raines said. “In Tennessee, with no state income tax, the property tax and the sales tax has to make a break. In Shelby County, you have unique issues such that the city of Memphis and Shelby County combined rate is significantly higher than any other rate in the state.”

But what value is it that the Shelby County Assessor of Property is trying to put on the property every four years? Raines said under state law, Jan. 1, 2013, is the date at which the fair market value – what a willing buyer would pay for the property and what a seller would be willing to sell it for.

“For a number of years, especially back in the 70s and 80s, the assessor’s values were usually less than you could really sell it for,” Raines said. “But over time, as reappraisals became every four years, that gap has narrowed. Now, the game is really what is the 100 percent fair value?”

Raines said for the first time in history, the value of a reappraisal is going down. How much the value decreases won’t be official until April 20.

“Typically in a reappraisal, because it’s every four years, values were going up, up, up – you would expect that the overall appraised value to go up, perhaps go up significantly,” Raines said. “The best indication we have now is that the overall value of the property will go down.”

The assessor uses a mass appraisal technique and it’s different for residential and commercial. This is because there are 350,583 parcels in the county. For commercial property, various appraisers use an income-approach model based on market data and then tailor it to each property type.

For residential, values come down to neighborhood comparable sales – hence the relevance of a homeowner’s proximity to foreclosures. Raines said the assessor uses “a common sense test” – if a neighborhood has 10 sales and eight of them are foreclosures, deeper analysis is directed at those foreclosures. But if there were only two foreclosure sales out of 10, it’s not as applicable.

Barnes said foreclosure attorneys and trustees are predicting foreclosures will jump about 20 percent – a result of two recent settlements with Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

Barnes said statewide, “the seriously over 90-days delinquent number” is down from the 2008 and 2009 peak. But it’s still historically very high.

“Even though we had this really bad housing recession/depression, there are a lot more loans out there now than there were back in 2005,” Barnes said. “The unemployment rate is better, but it’s still high; lending is happening, but the requirements on buying homes is still difficult. So the foreclosure mess isn’t going away, but it has come down from its real peak. There’s a lot of problematic homes still under the radar.”

Back in 2004 and 2005, in a good economy when unemployment was low and “people were feeling good,” Barnes said there were still 7,500 homes in Shelby County that went into the foreclosure process. Last year, there were 8,000 homes foreclosed in a much worse housing market.

“To some extent, we’re coming down,” Barnes said. “I think it’s going to level out. Even if the economy is booming, there are going to be 7,000 to 8,000 homes that go into foreclosure.”

 

October Pulse Report

November 15th, 2012 Comments off

Home Sales

The housing market continues to improve with 1,406 home sales recorded in Shelby County, up 36% from last year. 

Average home sales prices were up 1% for the month to $123,399.

Year-to-date home sales activity is up 18% with 12,584 sales recorded through October and average sales prices are up 2% from the same period last year. 

22% of home sales for the month were bank sales, up 21% from last year. The average price of a bank sale was $68,371, up 14% from October 2011. Year-to-date bank sales are up 26% from 2011.

Non-bank sales were up 41% from last October with 1,092 recorded averaging $139,221, a decrease in sales price of 2% from last year.

While there is an abundance of short sales activity and investor purchases, average home sales prices are hanging on, a positive indicator that the housing market continues to move in the right direction. Some local real estate offices report that 20-50% of their monthly sales are short sales.

Click here to review our October Market Trends reports.

Commercial Sales

Commercial sales are down 3% through the end of September with 530 recorded.

September’s commercial sales were off by 36% effecting 3rd quarter and year-to-date totals.

Average sales prices for commercial properties remain high, up 52% through the end of September at $1.6 million.

Sales of churches and schools are seeing the most improvement, up 40% from the same time last year with 24 sales recorded. Industrial sales are up 23% with 91 sales.

Average prices for Retail ($1.5M), Office ($1.1M) and Entertainment ($1M) properties are all up over 75%.

Vacant Land Over 1 Acre (103), Warehouses (78) and Apartments (57) have the most sales recorded through the first nine months of the year.

Click here to review our October Market Trends reports.

Foreclosure Analysis

Residential foreclosures were up 11% with 351 recorded compared to 316 last October. 

The average amount of a foreclosed home was $86,495 and the average tax appraisal value was $119,290.

The majority of foreclosures were within the city limits with 250 total, an increase of 13% from October 2011. 

While their overall foreclosure totals were comparatively low, Arlington and Germantown had an increase in activity while Bartlett and Millington foreclosures were down from last October.  

Year-to-date residential foreclosures are up 11% and average foreclosure amounts are down 4%.

Foreclosure notices were up 40% in October with 796 recorded. Year-to-date foreclosure notices are down 14%.

Click here to review our October Market Trends reports.

New Housing & Builder Activity

New housing continues to gain momentum. 

New home sales were up 25% with 81 sales recorded compared to 65 in October 2011.

The average sales price of a new home was up 15% to $255,442. 

Year-to-date new home sales are up 3% and average sales prices are up 12%.

Arlington had the most new home sales for the month with 23 total averaging $239,870.

679 new home permits have been filed through the end of September, up 22% from the same period last year. Arlington has the most new home permits filed with 155 total averaging $226,645.

At the end of the 3rd Quarter there were 911 homes in unsold inventory, up slightly from 3Q 2011. 

Regency Homebuilders continue as Shelby County’s top builder with 151 new home starts and 116 new home sales through the end of September.

Click here to review our October Market Trends reports.

Mortgage Trends & Lending

732 residential loans were filed at time of sale, up 36% from last October.

The average mortgage amount was $154,080 with an average sales price of $172,065 making the average loan to value ratio 90%.

The majority of mortgages taken at time of sale, 398, were conventional fixed rate loans averaging $169,521. 210 loans were FHA fixed rate loans averaging $139,557.

The top lenders based on the total number of residential loans filed at time of sale were Community Mortgage with 85 loans followed by Magna Bank with 59 and Regions Bank with 41 loans. 

Click here to review our October Market Trends reports.

New Features and Tools Available!

April 22nd, 2011 Comments off
Chandler Reports is excited to announce many new changes to our Shelby County residential service!
  
These new tools provide you easier access to our most commonly used reports in addition to new features and reports that provide you the ability to customize comparables the way that you want to view them!
  
On the upper left-hand side of our Detailed Property Profile report we have provided menus with simplified access to our automatic and compressed comparable reports, GIS map, tax map, MapQuest map, Assessor Information, Foreclosure Effect Report, Market Trend Reports and a snapshot of public records available for the property from The Daily News Online. If you are a Daily News Online subscriber, you can click the “Learn More” link to view the public records. If you are not a subscriber and would like information on The Daily News Online, please contact us.
  
At the bottom of the Detailed Property Profile report, under the Assessor and Property Tax information you will see links that direct you to the City and/or County tax collection sites. This allows you to automatically research tax payments for properties.
  
The following “Report Tools” are now available on the left-hand side of our Compressed and Detailed Comparable reports.
   
  • Remove Bank Sales: With a click of this button, bank sales are removed from the comparable report and the minimum, maximum and average prices at the bottom of the report are updated.  
  • Show Bank Sales Only: This allows you to view only the comparable banks sales with updated min/max/avg prices. 
  • Search by Radius: Enter your desired radius in the “Radius Miles” box and then click the “Search by Radius” button to see all comparable sales within the radius you’ve entered.
Under the “Additional Reports” heading you now have the ability to see all foreclosure activity surrounding the subject property. When you click the “View Area Foreclosures” button a new window opens displaying all recorded foreclosures located near your subject property over the past year. In the remarks section you can review the amount of the foreclosure labeled as F:######.  
  
You can now “Filter Sales” on our comparable reports to view sales for a specific timeframe including the last 6 months, the last 12 months or the last 18 months. By clicking the button of your choice, you have the ability to only see sales for that timeframe with updated min/max/avgs at the bottom of the report.  
  
Please note: These new features work individually and do not allow you the ability to use multiple options to narrow down the search results. For example, if you opt to remove bank sales from your report you will not have the option to then filter the non-bank sales for the last 6 months.
  
You can now easily view our Market Trend reports for Shelby, Fayette, and Tipton Counties under the “Market Trends” menu.
  
We value your feedback! Please tell us what you think about these new features! Click here to complete our brief survey! 
  
As always, we are here to support you! Please contact us 901-458-6419 or webhelp@chandlerreports.com if you have any questions!
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November Home Sales Recap

December 3rd, 2009 Comments off

There were 1,154 total home sales for November, up 17% from November 2008.

Of those sales, 771 were Non Bank Sales up 47% from 2008 where almost half of the sales for the month were Bank Sales.

November sales totalled more than $144 million and the average sales price was $125,086, up 3% from October.

There were only 88 new home sales for the month, down 27% from the prior month.

ZIP Codes with the most home sales were: 38016 (Cordova North), 38117 (East Central/Poplar Perkins), and 38128 (Raleigh)

Click here to review our full set of Residential Market Trend reports.